The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning October 20, 2026 are NFLX Netflix SPCX Space Exploration Technologies TSLA Tesla META Meta Platforms GE GE Aerospace

Earnings Expectation Life Cycle

Cheap Is Not the Same as Undervalued

A stock does not go from cheap to expensive at random. It moves through four recurring phases, set by two things: which way earnings estimates are heading, and whether investors have noticed yet. Get the pair right and a falling stock that keeps falling looks entirely different from one that is about to turn.

Earnings Momentum Positive Surprise Negative Surprise Value Trap
Value Trap

Bearish sentiment, falling estimates. Looks inexpensive, keeps underperforming. Declined in 59% of quarters.

Positive Surprise

Estimates turn up while sentiment is still bearish. The inflection, and the best risk-reward in the cycle.

Earnings Momentum

Bullish sentiment, rising estimates. The established trend, and historically the strongest of the four.

Negative Surprise

Estimates roll over while sentiment stays bullish. Bernstein called it the Torpedo, and the decline is abrupt.

Worked through with Amedisys, Callon Petroleum, NVIDIA, and SolarEdge.

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The Whisper Report®

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The Wrong Path

Monday, October 19, 2026
Fundamentals offer little evidence that the AI trade is over, but semiconductor price action tells a different story.
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Earnings Preview

TSLA Tesla is confirmed to report Wednesday, October 21, after the close.

Tesla's Q3 Test: Can Record Backlog Lift Margins While Capex Climbs Past $25 Billion?

Tesla heads into its third-quarter report with a demand story that improved sharply and a profit story that went the other way. Last quarter brought record second-quarter deliveries, the largest order backlog since 2023 and a Robotaxi network that grew from three cities to seven. It also brought lower margins across the board and negative free cash flow as spending more than doubled. The October 21 report, due after the close, should show which of those two narratives carries more weight heading into a multi-year investment cycle.

The Street expects non-GAAP earnings of $0.44 a share on revenue of $27.80 billion. That would be roughly triple the $0.14 Tesla earned last quarter and about 19% above the $0.37 from a year ago. Revenue, however, is projected to slip about 1.1% from last year and land slightly below the prior quarter's $28.24 billion. In other words, analysts are betting on a margin recovery rather than top-line growth. The Earnings Whisper of $0.40 sits modestly below consensus, which suggests the more informed bar is a bit lower than the published number. With no fresh formal guidance to anchor the forecasts, the conference call commentary is the best guide to what matters.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

Annaly Capital Management Beat Consensus Estimates
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) reported earnings of $0.80 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.77 per share on revenue of $545.00 million. The company beat consensus estimates by 3.90% while revenue grew 28.58% on a year-over-year basis.

Annaly Capital Management Inc is a mortgage REIT company. The Company owns a portfolio of real estate related investments, including mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations, agency callable debentures & other securities.

Chubb Limited Beat Expectations
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 4:10 PM
Chubb Limited (CB) reported earnings of $7.66 per share on revenue of $16.20 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $6.53 per share on revenue of $16.72 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $6.61 per share. The company beat expectations by 15.89% while revenue grew 0.29% on a year-over-year basis.

Chubb Corp is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries is engaged in property and casualty insurance.

Pegasystems Missed Expectations
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Pegasystems (PEGA) reported earnings of $0.35 per share on revenue of $393.36 million for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.45 per share on revenue of $429.02 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.48 per share. The company missed expectations by 27.08% while revenue grew 3.15% on a year-over-year basis.

Pegasystems Inc. develops, market, and license software and also provides implementation, consulting, training, and technical support services to help its customers maximize the business value from the use of the Company' software.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Big Tech, Banks and Jets: Why This Earnings Week Could Set the Market's Tone

October 17, 2026
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This is one of those weeks where Wall Street practically holds its breath. The marquee names are the ones everyone already has an opinion about. Netflix kicks things off with the kind of buzz that suggests traders expect good news from your weekend binge habit, while the social media giant behind your feed is heading in with quiet confidence and a tailwind at its back. On the industrial side, the aerospace and defense crowd looks sturdy, with the jet-engine maker and a cluster of missile-and-radar names walking in on solid footing. Carmakers are the wildcard: the electric-vehicle pioneer remains the stock everyone loves to argue about, and after a rough stretch the mood around it is cautiously warming, while the old-guard Detroit automaker is drawing surprisingly upbeat vibes. Expect fireworks either way, since options traders are bracing for some of these to swing hard the morning after.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR 2.6% since the report




Trusted Earnings Research Since 1998

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