The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning October 14, 2026 are ASML ASML TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing BAC Bank of America NFLX Netflix MS Morgan Stanley

The Earnings Quarter

Know Where a Stock Sits Between Reports

A company reports once every three months. Its stock spends the other eighty-nine days deciding what the report meant — and that path has a shape. Knowing whether a stock is still drifting on its last report, sitting in the quiet middle, or already running up into the next one tells you which questions matter now, and where the odds are quietly tilting.

53% Gap higher after reporting
+3.5% Average up gap previous close to open
−3.8% Average down gap previous close to open

The gap is the opening move. What happens over the following three months is a different question — and a more useful one.

A worked example, not an average: JPM across its own earnings quarters, indexed to its price two weeks before each report.
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The Whisper Report®

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Credit Meets Earnings

Monday, October 12, 2026
Macro data is positive, guidance and estimates are rising, early earnings results have been strong, and the yield curve is holding steady. The question is whether the banks confirm that borrowers are still healthy.
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Earnings Preview

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is confirmed to report Thursday, October 15, before the open.

TSMC Must Prove Its AI Boom Can Outrun N2 Margin Dilution as Expectations Climb

TSMC enters its third-quarter report with an awkward kind of problem: demand is so strong that the costs of meeting it are starting to show up in the margin line. Management raised its full-year growth target for the third straight quarter last time and called AI demand essentially insatiable. It also warned that the steep ramp of its N2 process would pull gross margin lower. The October 15 release, due before the open, is the first real test of whether revenue momentum can absorb that dilution without disappointing a market that has already priced in a great deal of good news.

The Street is looking for earnings of $4.45 per share on revenue of $45.65 billion. That would mean growth of roughly 52% in earnings and 38% in revenue from a year ago, an exceptional pace for a company of this size. Management guided to revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. When that range was issued, consensus sat well below it, near $42.6 billion. Analysts have since chased the number up to the top of the range. In other words, a result merely at the midpoint would now look like a soft quarter. TSMC has a habit of landing at or above the upper end, but the cushion is thinner than usual.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

Progressive Beat Expectations

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:16 AM
Progressive (PGR) reported earnings of $4.60 per share on revenue of $23.19 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $4.46 per share on revenue of $23.41 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $4.40 per share. The company beat expectations by 4.55% while revenue grew 3.02% on a year-over-year basis.

Progressive Corp is an insurance holding company, whose subsidiaries provides personal and commercial automobile insurance and other property-casualty insurance and related services throughout the United States.

State Street Missed Expectations

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 7:34 AM
State Street (STT) reported earnings of $3.69 per share on revenue of $6.06 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $3.65 per share on revenue of $4.04 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $3.75 per share. The company missed expectations by 1.60% while revenue grew 5.36% on a year-over-year basis.

State Street Corp provides a range of investment management strategies, investment management advisory services and other financial services for corporations, public funds and other sophisticated investors.

Morgan Stanley Beat Expectations

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 7:31 AM
Morgan Stanley (MS) reported earnings of $3.03 per share on revenue of $33.28 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.83 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.92 per share. The company beat expectations by 3.77% while revenue grew 6.69% on a year-over-year basis.

Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing a wide range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Big Banks Take Center Stage as Earnings Season Kicks Into High Gear

October 10, 2026
UNH JPM GS ASML TSM WFC
Buckle up, because this is the week Wall Street has been circling on its calendar. The nation's banking giants are about to throw open their books, and this crowd always sets the tone for everything that follows. JPMorgan and Citigroup are strolling in with a swagger, riding real optimism and a tailwind from solid results last time around. Citigroup in particular has the whisper crowd leaning bullish, hoping management keeps the good news flowing. Not everyone is bringing the same energy, though. Goldman Sachs is walking into the room under a cloud, with the mood decidedly sour and analysts quietly bracing for a stumble. Wells Fargo, Bank of America and the regional players round out a packed financials lineup, and when this many banks report in a single stretch, even small surprises can send ripples across the whole market.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR 21.0% since the report 1.7% above its post-earnings high




Trusted Earnings Research Since 1998

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